Affective Forecasting — Why Data-driven business decisions are vital

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Affective forecasting (or emotional estimation, whatever you want to call it) is an evil thing. Ok, at least in business — because it lets you make decisions which are often irrational and counterproductive.

So, here is what affective forecasting is:

human beings aren’t very accurate in predicting their emotional reactions to future events

In plain English, what does this mean?

Take for example lottery winners. Statistically speaking, the vast majority are financially worse off 5 years after winning the lottery. Yet almost anybody you ask is adamant that “this wouldn’t happen to me”. In other words: they completely understimate their emotional reaction to such an event.

What does that mean for my business?

Despite the fact that we call ourselves “professional” (I can count the true professionals I know on one hand) and hence make all decisions based in or on logic, we are in reality extremely emotional creatures. And not being able to predict my emotional reaction to a future event is extremely limiting.

Here is an example of affective forecasting in action: say we do a marketing test on a small sample, it comes back with great numbers.

What happens next?

More often than not, the spreadsheet comes out, the skyrocketing projections are made … et voila… out comes the champagne. We’ll be rich before you know it.

What happened is that what we saw in the spreadsheet (positive outcome) completely swamped any concerns about a possible complete failure of the campaign at a larger scale (negative outcome). We simply do not see that we would react very badly (to losing lots of money) and hence consider this possbilitiy insignificant.

Or, even more common: you hire a person you really *like*. When you *like* them during the interview, it is virtually impossible for you to predict how you would react to them underperforming in the future for example.

Again, that possibility is discounted — “surely that wouldn’t happen” Yet the statistics tell a different story.

Moral of the story — or of “affective forecasting”: most businesses are not enough data-driven, at least when it comes to marketing and sales.

Don’t believe me?

Well, show me your stats what percentage of your sales are made during which contact (the first, the second, the …..) with a prospect.

See? The vast majority of businesses don’t even do such a simple thing …. and in the process are leaving a lot of money on the table.

Why?

You tell me

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Stompernet Formula Five Sneak Preview

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Hey guys,

Here is why if you are serious about growing your business you must check out

Stompernet Formula Five

which is a joint-venture between renowned business consultant Paul Lemberg and Andy Jenkins of Going Natural 2.0 fame.

Why you should check out Stompernet Formula Five

Stompernet Formula Five video

Before you click on the video above (where you’ll see a bunch of testimonials and find out how to get your hands on the outstanding 90 minute, 100% pure content presentation by Paul Lemberg - 100% pure content by the way, no selling, no fluff!!!), consider this:

  • after 6 years, only about 37% of all new businesses are still around.
  • the odds of winning at the horseraces are 41%
  • the odds of winning roulette are 47%
  • the odds of winning blackjack (when you know what you’re doing) are a shade over 50%

So: what the heck are you doing spending your time on building a business which statistically speaking (yeah, I know, it’s not going to happen to you or me) has a worse chance of survival than gambling?

Well, with Paul’s proven method which is provided in great detail in the free video, you can increase those odds to around 95%.

And the best thing is: the methods are so incredibly simple, everybody can do it!

But: don’t believe me, don’t believe the hype. All you need to do is check out the video to get the 90 minute presentation Paul gave at a Stompernet event earlier this year.

What you’ll find in Stompernet Formula Five

A quick summary of the 90 minute video is:

The fundamental strategy is to exploit the law of compounding (you know, interest on interest over the years leads to a massive fortune). The same goes for business: instead of putting all your efforts into one area, just improve one of 5 areas until the improvement ’sticks’, then go to the next of these 5 areas. And each of the small modifications affects all the other ones.

Easy, I told you.

So, the Stompernet Formula Five program is built around only five steps, and although I can’t go into details on each of these, I will lay out the general ideas behind them.

Here we go:

F5 Step 1: Increase your margin of return or sales percentage. In real world terms, if you are getting a 1.5% response through your current sales process and you increase it to 1.65% you have just increased your business by 15%. It doesn’t take much to grow your business by 15% just using this one step.

F5 Step 2: With little investment or work you can increase your value per visitor in your business with many different techniques.

F5 Step 3: With a little more effort, you can double the overall number of leads for your business (although again, a 15% increase is just the increase you’re looking for)

F5 Step 4: By understanding the buying habits of your customers you can maximize the customers you get and the ones you already have. This one step alone can bring exceptional results to your business. (and in the current economic climate that’s a massive step forward)

F5 Step 5: This is TOP SECRET and I can’t give you much besides it will be a “FORCE MULTIPLIER” to the growth of your business.

There you have it! Realize that the above steps are greatly summarized and don’t do this awesome program any justice.

So, Who Is The Stomper Formula Five Program For?

Paul Lemberg, is the man behind Stompernet Formula Five. Paul, as a consultant has increased businesses’ revenues to the tune of $350 Million!

Now, of course, he is partnered Andy Jenkins of StomperNet to launch this “coaching program” to help already existing businesses grow their revenues.

If you missed the clue above, this program is for already existing businesses:

  1. Who are making money.
  2. Who want to invest in a coaching program to grow their business by a successful coach who has helped raise revenues in the millions for other businesses.
  3. That will implement the steps to bring massive benefits to their business, and
  4. Who are willing to learn continually to improve their business even more.

If you meet that criteria, then you simply must check out the free 90 minute video to find out how to grow your business beyond what it is today.

If you do not fall into the category above, I still think you should check out the free video (and then instead of investing in the course, invest your resources into building your business so you can start earning money). The 90 minutes will be a worthwhile investment, I guarantee it!

What do I need to do now?

All you need to do right now is either click on the video to see some testimonials (it’s only about 90secs long and very well done, so worth the time) or go straight to the Stompernet Formula Five signup-page to get your hands on the 90 minute video explaining in detail Stompernet Formula Five.

Stompernet Formula Five video

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How to use your natural Genius to thrive under any business conditions

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Master coach Otto Siegel explains

  1. WHY you must discover your inner Genius if you want to thrive under all conditions
  2. HOW to discover your core strengths (and with that Your Genius!)
  3. WHY we are holding ourselves back in business and in life (and HOW to overcome it!)
  4. The top reasons WHY so many of us feel stuck in our small businesses (and what to do about it)
  5. HOW specifically to use your new genius to thrive in a competitive market (or a recession)
  6. WHAT you will gain personally as a result of discovering and unleashing your personal strengths
  7. HOW to master time
  8. HOW to be persistent the right way (whether it’s in your small business or in life)

Here is a quick high-level overview:

The full call is here:

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

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How objecting to “being sold to” is hurting your profits

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Picture this….

… there you are in the laundry room of the Student Union waiting for the tumble-drier to finish shredding your socks and T-shirts. When suddenly you are approached by a random stranger who strikes up a conversation, probably around the speed at which the tumble-drier eats your coins faster than it dries your clothing.

Everything goes fine … and then the stranger hits you with

“… so, what are you doing on Sunday?”

(uh, could be good, heck, I’m a computer scientist, so being asked out is not something that happens very often)

“… a few friends and I are getting together to XXXX ”

for the purpose of this example, it doesn’t matter what XXXX is (no, it wasn’t about drinking cheap Australian beer) — basically what happened, I was being sold to and I didn’t like it. And I didn’t care about the rest of the message and left ….

Sound familiar? Of course it does. Nobody really likes being sold to.

And, unfortunately, it also means that you are hurting your profits.

Here’s why:

Everytime you shut yourself off to “being sold to”, you stop learning. And that’s a big mistake. Instead, what you could consider doing (if you really wanted to improve your sales skills, and you do, don’t you?), is to fully engage and take note of everthing they do!

Learn how they do it, what sales techniques they are using, how they build rapport instantly (the laundry person had me from the start, and only blew it when he hit on XXXX which wasn’t my cup of tea — at all. Had they asked me how I felt about XXXX, the outcome could have been very different)

Try to figure out WHY they are using certain techniques, WHEN they’re using them and HOW they’re applying them.

Yes, you could argue that you don’t really want to learn from someone who clearly tried to “sell (to) you”. But, remember: there will be plenty of people who do want to hear that exact same message.

So, if you bump into an exquisit sales-person, whether they are selling to you or not (if they’re not, then that’s just you thinking they’re not, because you are actually interested in what they have to offer, see paragraph above), pay attention, take notes and learn.

If you are interested in learning from outstanding sales-people (watch out, are you being sold to right now?…;-), check out Christopher Howard

http://www.christopherhoward.com/

They do a free 3 day seminar where you learn how to break through ’stuff’ that is holding you back.

And of course, as the whole thing is for free, they will offer you the opportunity to purchase some of their products. Btw, I am only suggesting you check it out for 2 reasons: I have been to their seminars (and spent lots and lots of money with them afterwards, and yes, it’s all been very worthwhile), so I’m happy recommending them and b) their sales pitch is exquisit!

So, If you want to learn about selling, go check them out (and don’t blame me for becoming an exquisit sales person yourself). The best thing is that they are very upfront about it, they tell you at the start that they are giving you great free content and that they can do it because they will sell something to those who are interested.

going back to the laundry, yes, even that little pitch in the laundry room cost me. I left in a hurry. Including leaving at least one lonely sock behind… If only all lessons in life only cost a single sock….

Veit

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Overcome Everything (in Life and Your Business)

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This coming Thursday, July 3 at 12:00pm Pacific/3:00pm Eastern

Master Certified Coach Otto Siegel who has decades of business, leadership and personal coaching experience has agreed to do a special call on how to

  1. overcome obstacles,
  2. find hidden opportunities in every setback and
  3. discover your hidden genius.

The call details are:

EVENT: Otto Siegel: Discover Your Inner Genius
DATE & TIME: Thursday, July 3rd at 12:00pm Pacific/3:00pm Eastern
FORMAT: Simulcast! (Attend via Phone or Webcast — it’s your choice)
TO ATTEND THIS EVENT, CLICK THIS LINK NOW…
http://instantTeleseminar.com/?eventid=3434790

This interview will be driven by your questions! Let us know *before* the interview what is holding you back in your business, where you’d like to go.

And by ‘holding you back’, we mean what’s obvious to you (hey, I just don’t have the business skills, marketing skills, expertise, …) but also the not so obvious. The things where you tell yourself, “I’m no good at XYZ….”. An example would be “I just don’t have any ideas of how to make my marketing exciting” (although you all should after listening to Margo’s call!).

So, have a quick think and let us know!

looking forward to having you on the call

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